Title大气PM10与心血管疾病就诊人次的时间序列分析
Other TitlesAssociation between Ambient PM10 and Daily Hospital Visits: a Time-Series Analysis
Authors王宛怡
王洪源
张志刚
王旗
Affiliation北京大学公共卫生学院,北京,100191
国家气象中心天气预报室,北京,100081
Keywords空气污染
可吸入颗粒物
心血管疾病
广义相加模型
时间序列分析
日就诊人次
Air pollution
Inhalable particulates
Cardiovascular diseases
Generalized addictive model
Time series analysis
Daily hospital visit
Issue Date2009
Publisher环境与健康杂志
Citation环境与健康杂志.2009,26,(12),1069-1072.
Abstract目的 研究大气PM10污染对居民心血管系统疾病日就诊人次的影响.方法 采用广义相加Poisson回归模型的时间序列分析,在控制长期趋势、星期几效应、气象因素等混杂因素的影响后,对2002年1月1日-2002年12月31日北京市大气PM10日均浓度与居民心血管系统疾病日就诊人次进行定量回归分析,并考虑滞后效应和其他空气污染物的影响.结果 大气PM10浓度每上升10μg/m~3,当天的心血管系统疾病日就诊人次增加O.380%(95%CI:0.326%~0.433%);滞后4 d PM10的健康效应最强,超额危险度为1.166%(95%CI:1.121%~1.212%);考虑CO、NO_2、SO_2:的影响均使PM10的健康效应估计值增高.结论 北京城区大气PM10污染与居民心血管系统疾病日就诊人次之间存在正相关.
Objective To estimate quantitatively the impact of the ambient PM10 on the hospital outpatients for cardiovascular diseases of local residents. Methods Time serial analysis using generalized addictive model (GAM) was applied. After controlling for those confounding factors such as long-term trend, weekly pattern and meteorological factors, considering lag effect and the influence of other air pollutants, excess relative risks (ER) of daily hospital visits associated with increasing PM10 level were estimated by fitting a Poisson regression model. Results A 10 μ.g/m~3 increase in PM10 levels was associated with an ER of 0.380% (95%CI: 0.326%~0.433%) for hospital visits for cardiovascular diseases. Lag effect of 4 days with an ER of 1.166% (95%C/:1.121%~1.212%) were observed. The ER value increased when CO, NO_2, SO_2 concentrations were introduced. Conclusion The ambient PM10 concentration is positively associated with daily hospital visits for cardiovascular diseases in Beijing.
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11897/30567
ISSN1001-5914
Appears in Collections:公共卫生学院



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