Title北京市大气可吸入性颗粒物污染对居民死亡影响的时间序列分析
Other TitlesTime-series analysis of ambient PM10 pollution on residential mortality in Beijing
Authors薛江丽
王旗
蔡玥
周脉耕
Affiliation100191北京大学公共卫生学院毒理学系
中国疾病预防控制中心公共卫生监测与信息服务中心
Keywords空气污染物
颗粒物
模型
统计学
时间序列分析
广义相加模型
Air pollutants
Particulate matter
Models
statistical
Time-series analysis
Generalized additive model
Issue Date2012
Publisher中华预防医学杂志
Citation中华预防医学杂志.2012,46,(5),447-451.
Abstract目的 探讨北京市大气PM10污染对居民非意外死亡、心脑血管疾病死亡及呼吸系统疾病死亡的短期影响.方法2005 -2009年北京市居民死亡数据来自中国CDC公共卫生监测与信息服务中心,同期北京市大气PM10、S02和NO2的日平均浓度数据分别来自北京市环保局(2005-2006年)和北京环保公众网(2007-2009年),气象数据来自中国气象科学数据共享网.采用时间序列的广义相加Poison回归模型,在控制长期趋势、星期几效应、气象因素等混杂因素的基础上,定量分析北京市城区2005-2009年大气PM10污染对居民每天死亡水平的影响及其滞后效应.结果2005-2009年北京市居民日均非意外死亡、呼吸系统疾病死亡、心脑血管疾病死亡例数分别为140.1、15.0和65.8例,同期大气PM1o、SO2、N02日均浓度的中位数分别为123.0、26.0和58.0 μg/m3,平均气压为10.1 kPa,平均气温为13.5℃,平均相对湿度为51.9%.广义相加Poisson回归模型显示,大气PM10每升高10μg/m3,居民当天非意外死亡、呼吸系统疾病死亡和心脑血管疾病死亡分别增加0.1267% (95% CI:0.0824%~0.1710%)、0.1365%( 95%CI:0.0010% -0.2720%)和0.1239%(95% CI:0.0589% ~0.1889%),居民5d后呼吸系统疾病死亡增加最明显.结论北京市大气PM10污染可导致居民非意外死亡、心脑血管疾病死亡及呼吸系统疾病死亡水平上升,其对呼吸系统疾病死亡水平的影响存在滞后效应.
Objective To explore the short-tern impact of ambient PM10 on daily non-accidental death,cardiovascular and respiratory death of residents in Beijing.Methods Mortality data of residents in Beijing during 2006 to 2009 were obtained from public health surveillance and information service center of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,contemporaneous data of average daily air concentration of PM10,SO2,NO2 were obtained from Beijing Environment Protection Bureau ( year 2005 - 2006 ) and public website of Beijing environmental protection ( year 2007 - 2009 ),respectively,contemporaneous meteorological data were obtained from china meteorological data sharing service system.Generalized addictive model (GAM) of time serial analysis was applied.In additional to the control of confounding factors such as longterm trend,day of the week effect,meteorological factors,lag effect and the effects of other atmospheric pollutants were also analized.Results During year 2006 to 2009,the number of average daily nonaccidental death,respiratory disease caused death,cardiovascular and cerebrova.seular diseases caused death among Beijing residents were 140.1,15.0,65.8,respectively ; contemporaneous medians of average daily air concentration of PM10,SO2,NO2 were 123.0,26.0,58.0 μg/m3,respectively; contemporaneous average atmosphere pressure,tempreture and relative humidity were 10.1 kPa,13.5 °C and 51.9%,respectively.An exposure-response relationship between exposure to ambient PM10 and increased daily death number was found as every 10 μg/m3 increase in daily average coneentration of PM10,there was a 0.1267% (95% CI:0.0824% -0.1710% ) increase in daily non-accidental death of residents,0.1365% (95% CI:0.0010%-0.2720% ) increase in respiratory death and 0.1239% (95% CI:0.0589% - 0.1889% ) increase in cardiovascular death.Ambient PM10 had greatest influence on daily non-accidental and cardiovascular death of the same day,while its greatest influence on respiratory death occurred 5 days later.Conclusion The ambient PM10 pollution increased daily non-accidental,respiratory disease caused,cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases caused deaths among residents in Beijing,and lag effect existed as for the effect of ambient PM10 pollution on respiratory disease caused death.
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11897/31348
ISSN0253-9624
DOI10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2012.05.015
Indexed中文核心期刊要目总览(PKU)
中国科技核心期刊(ISTIC)
中国科学引文数据库(CSCD)
Appears in Collections:公共卫生学院

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